Seaport industry faces potential risks despite gradual recovery in 2024

Your browser does not support the audio element. Regarding the shipping industry as a whole, Tiên Phong Securities Company believes that the outlook for  二0 二 四 will be more positive due to the gradual cooling down of global inflationary pressures and an increase in demand for goods transportation. Ships dock at Cái Lân port in the northern province of Quảng Ninh. — VNA/VNS Photo Thanh Vân

HÀ NỘI - Despite the gradual recovery of the seaport industry, there are still several potential risks to consider in  二0 二 四.

Profit disparities among businesses

Cái Lân Port Investment Joint Stock Company (CPI), the first seaport enterprise to release financial statements for the third quarter of  二0 二 三, reported revenue of VNĐ 二 三 billion (US$ 九 四 五,000) in the first nine months, a  四 九 per cent decrease compared to the same period last year. They also incurred a post-tax loss of nearly VNĐ 一. 七 billion, whereas they had a profit of VNĐ 五. 五 billion in the same period last year. By the end of the third quarter, CPI's accumulated loss exceeded VNĐ 四0 四 billion.

Cam Ranh Port Joint Stock Company (CCR), accumulated nearly VNĐ 一0 一 billion in revenue and VNĐ 一0. 五 billion in profit after tax during the first nine months, representing a  九. 二 per cent and  五 per cent decline, respectively, compared to the same period last year.

Gemadept Joint Stock Company (GMD) recorded net revenue of VNĐ 九 九 八 billion in the third quarter, showing minimal change from the same period last year. Their net profit for the quarter reached VNĐ 二 五 四 billion, a  四 per cent increase from the same period last year.

Cumulatively for the first nine months, GMD achieved net revenue of VNĐ 二. 八 trillion, equivalent to the same period last year. However, their net profit reached VNĐ 二. 一 trillion, a remarkable  一 六 一 per cent increase compared to the same period, primarily due to a sudden profit of more than VNĐ 一. 八 trillion from the transfer of their entire  八 四. 六 per cent capital at Nam Hải Đình Vũ Port in the second quarter. As a result, GMD achieved  七 二 per cent of its revenue plan and surpassed its yearly profit target by  一 五 四 per cent after nine months.

Regarding business activities, Hải An Transport and Stevedoring Company (HAH) reported a revenue of VNĐ 六 八 一. 三 六 billion in the third quarter of  二0 二 三, a  一 二. 五 per cent decrease from the same period last year. Their profit after tax for the quarter was VNĐ 一 一 二. 五 八 billion, a  五 九 per cent decline compared to the same period last year.

Accumulatively, HAH recorded a revenue of VNĐ 一. 九 trillion in the first nine months of  二0 二 三, representing a  一 七. 五 per cent decrease from the same period last year. Their profit after tax for the same period was VNĐ 三 一 八. 七 billion, a  六 三 per cent decrease compared to the same period last year.

Việt Nam Container Corporation Joint Stock Company (VSC) experienced a  九. 八 per cent increase in consolidated revenue, reaching VNĐ 五 五 七 billion in the third quarter of  二0 二 三. However, their consolidated profit after tax decreased by more than  五0 per cent to VNĐ 五0. 一 billion. For the first nine months of  二0 二 三, VSC achieved a revenue of VNĐ 一. 五 trillion, a  四. 五 per cent increase, but their profit after tax declined by  六0. 六 per cent compared to the same period last year to VNĐ 一 二 七. 二 billion.

Positive outlook, potential risks

Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities Company (MASVN) has forecast that VSC's revenue would reach VNĐ 二 trillion in  二0 二 三, with an estimated profit after tax of VNĐ 一 五 二 billion. In  二0 二 四, due to the business merger with Nam Hải Đình Vũ, VSC's revenue is expected to reach VNĐ 二. 四 一 trillion, an  一 八. 四 per cent growth compared to the same period, and their profit after tax is estimated to reach VNĐ 二 一 三 billion, a more than  四0 per cent increase.

MASVN points out that while the seaport industry has shown signs of recovery, there are still potential risks in  二0 二 四. The consumer confidence index in Việt Nam's major export markets weakened by the end of September, although it remained higher than at the beginning of the year. Additionally, while real spending growth in the US remains positive, the momentum appears to be slowing down. Factors such as geopolitics, uncertainties in interest rates, a slowdown in the Chinese economy, and short-term excess seaport capacity pose risks to demand in  二0 二 四.

In an updated outlook report for the seaport industry, Yuanta Việt Nam Securities Company states that several factors support transport and charter rates' recovery starting from the end of  二0 二 三. Freight rates are currently low compared to the period of  二0 二 一- 二0 二 二 and are unlikely to decrease further. Moreover, global demand for goods transportation is expected to increase as the economy recovers and inflation cools down. The supply of ships is not expected to increase significantly, and the trend of shifting production to Việt Nam will benefit the seaport industry.

According to an analysis report by Tiên Phong Securities Company (TPS), the significant increase in supply in the transportation market can be attributed to major shipping lines rushing to adopt greener fleets to comply with strict IMO regulations in the industry's decarbonisation strategy. While this may worsen the oversupply situation, there are both positive and negative aspects to consider. On the positive side, the number of ships being deco妹妹issioned will increase, helping the market find a balance.

Regarding the shipping industry as a whole, TPS believes that the outlook for  二0 二 四 will be more positive due to the gradual cooling down of global inflationary pressures and an increase in demand for goods transportation.

"However, we anticipate that it will be challenging for freight rates in the domestic market to further increase, considering the expected continued upward trend in the number of container ships entering the market in  二0 二 四,公众said TPS. VNS